Friday 31 October 2014

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Sustainable Dev.

 

Is nuclear fusion an alternative to renewable energy?

Posted by on 20/05/14

At the risk of destroying the basis of human civilisation Humanity must find ways and means for phasing out the use of fossil fuels before the end of the century. The EU aims at reaching that objective already for 2050.

Renewable energies – wind, sun, waves and tides – can do the job provided Humanity imposes substantial cuts on its energy consumption, which should be possible through a substantial increase of energy efficiency.

Renewable energies have benefited from rapid technological progress lowering production costs and making them almost competitive with fossil energies. But they continue to suffer from their inherent handicap of intermittence which can only be neutralised by big investments in energy storage.

The focus on energy efficiency and renewable energies has overshadowed the parallel effort to develop thermonuclear fusion for the generation of electricity which has been going on for more than 70 years

Copying the sun has made it possible to produce the hydrogen bomb. Why should it not alsobe possible to tame thermonuclear energy for the generation of electricity!

What appears simple in scientific terms poses huge engineering challenges. How to imitate the sun that contains the plasma by temperatures of 15 million degrees and very powerful gravitational pressures?

The basic answer lies in compressing deuterium and tritium hydrogen isotopes into helium through electromagnetism and much higher temperatures than in the sun,

For decades scientists have attempted to generate electricity this way.

In 1997 physicists at the Culham Centre for Fusion Energy have succeeded to generate 16 MW, but with an a input of 24 MW.

It is only in February 2014 that US scientists have, for the first time, been able to obtain a slightly positive yield.

The most ambitious international scientific programme for peaceful nuclear fusion ever launched, the “International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor” (ITER) grouping USA, EU, Japan, Korea, India, China and Russia aims at generating fusion energy by 2028. It is extremely complex, due to diverging interests among the participants. In the fall of 2013 it was on the verge of breaking up when the US Senate refused to attribute additional financing after delays and cost- overruns, though the costs of €15 billion are only 10 times the cost of building one 500 MW off-shore wind park kin the North Sea.

Nobody is certain that by 2028 the gigantic machine will effectively generate more electricity than it consumes. But physicists will, in any case, be able to draw fertile lessons from their 15-year long cooperation.

And one day before the end of the century, they will most probably succeed.

When they do thermonuclear energy might become a crucial component of the future energy mix and contribute to the fight against climate change. The ultimate test will, however, not be the technical feasibility of a fusion reactor but the cost of generating thermonuclear electricity compared to much simpler and safer technologies.

Whatever the outcome of that research, thermonuclear fusion is unlikely to ever replace cost-effective technologies like wind, sun and waves.

Eberhard Rhein, Brussels, 16/5/2014

How values dictate our use of the ‘precaution’ principle

Posted by on 17/05/14
The Risk-Monger shows that if the implementation of the precautionary principle were rational, then coffee would need to be banned. Fortunately, in this case, normative reflux steps in - our values and love of the benefits blinds us to the real risks and allows us to enjoy coffee despite the evidence.

New rules on organic labelling on the way

Posted by on 14/05/14

The organic sector must engage now with the institutions of the European Union if it is to secure the right outcome for new legislation on organic food.

With all the hype around the upcoming European Parliamentary election (even though many around Europe have not noticed) one might be forgiven to have missed the release at the end of March of a new proposed regulation on organic food production and the labelling of organic food products by the Commission.

This proposal is one born of the success of the industry over the last decade or so: despite an on-going economic crisis, the organic sector in the EU has grown fourfold, whilst the amount of land devoted to organic food production has doubled. So, the Commission has decided new regulation is needed to ensure the sustainable development of the industry. And while the average citizen will probably be unaware of this legislative development, the organic sector has certainly taken good notice and is gearing up to make its voice heard during the negotiations which will take place over the next few months.

I won’t go into too much detail on the proposals themselves – such detail tends not to make for an especially exciting column – but some of the suggested changes appear to be a welcome effort to clarify and harmonise rules. On the issue of organic production, for example, the Commission is looking to strengthen and harmonise the rules removing various exemptions and derogations that are currently allowed.

Similarly, in the field of official controls the Commission wants to reinforce the risk based approach, removing the requirement for a mandatory annual physical verification of compliance of all operators and increase transparency with regard to fees that may be collected for the controls.

Alongside the proposal, the Commission has published an action plan to support the growth of the organic farming sector, setting out the steps that will be taken over the next few years. These include the publication of a document presenting the rules applicable to organic production, processors and trade; the development of a system of electronic certification for import; and the development and implementation of an organic fraud prevention policy, among other measures.

Clarity and commitment to cut down on the sort of food fraud which can imperil the organic sector’s reputation is all welcome. But, some in the EU are uneasy that new rules may be far too burdensome and there are ominous rumblings from the two big EU powers, France and Germany, that they are particularly dissatisfied.

As ever with the EU though, don’t expect too much to happen too quickly – it is unlikely that the regulation will become law before the end of 2015. After being published, the proposal has been assigned for scrutiny to the European Parliament’s Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development (AGRI) which will not start working on it until next July at the very earliest.  After this scrutiny process the Council, which is made up of representatives from the 28 Member States, will then have its say.

The debate will start soon, so now is the time for the organic sector to start looking at this proposed law, its advantages and its disadvantages – and how they can influence its development, maximising opportunities and identifying threats.

Despite the criticisms which have already been leveraged against the proposal, this draft regulation and action plan can be seen as a vote of confidence from the European Commission in the EU’s organic sector – and given the millions of consumers who choose to buy organic products every day in Europe, why not?

Chris Whitehouse is Chairman of leading public affairs Consultancy www.whitehouseconsulting.co.uk whose Food Regulation Team advise many organisations and businesses in the specialist food product sector. He is also Director of Strategy of consumer organisation Consumers for Health Choice www.consumersforhealthchoice.com and of the European Specialist Sports Nutrition Alliance www.essna.com.

 

Political leadership in a new era

Posted by on 13/05/14
By Kaj Embren

IPCC. Drought. Storms. CO2 levels of 400 ppm. In 2014, climate change and sustainability moved from being distinct environmental concerns to becoming systematic welfare issues. Our traditional way of looking at the world as a collection of national economies can not continue. Policy decisions at the national level must be based on a different worldview – one that sees our world as a network of cities with climate change and sustainable community development at their heart. It is time to start 'Governing for Sustainability'.

Das Fracking in Deutschland. Vorbild für Europa?

Posted by on 12/05/14

Fracking – nein, danke! Öffentlichkeitswirksam haben sich die Umweltminister der Länder heute gegen die umstrittene Methode zur Gasförderung ausgesprochen. Allerdings zu sagen haben die Minister bei dem Thema wenig. Denn Fracking fällt unter das Bergrecht und damit in die Zuständigkeit der Wirtschaftsminister. Und derzeit bereiten die Wirtschaftsminister einiger Länder – allen voran Niedersachsen und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern – durch die Hintertür einen Einstieg in das Fracking in Deutschland vor.

Hintergrund sind ganz handfeste wirtschaftliche Gründe. Ganze 600 Millionen Euro bekommt zum Beispiel Niedersachsen Jahr für Jahr von der Erdgas-Industrie für den geförderten Rohstoff. Zum Vergleich: Das ist dreimal so viel wie der Anteil des Landes an VW wert ist. Pech ist nur, dass die Erdgasförderung in Deutschland seit Jahren sinkt und damit Industriestätten gefährdet sind. Das Fracking soll es jetzt herausreißen.

Dabei unterscheidet die Branche aber zwischen “gutem” und “schlechtem” Fracking. Das “gute” Fracking ist schon seit 1961 mehrfach in Niedersachsen durchgeführt worden und soll jetzt nach jahrelangem Moratorium in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern zum Einsatz kommen. Dabei geht es darum, dass Gas aus tiefen Sandsteinschichten herauszuspülen. Dieses Verfahren ist nicht so umweltschädlich wie das sogenannte “schlechte” Fracking in tiefem Schiefergestein, weil nicht so viele umweltschädliche Stoffe eingesetzt werden. Deshalb erwarten Niedersachsen und auch Mecklenburg-Vorpommern bei ihrem Vorstoß auch längst nicht den Gegenwind wie beim Schiefer-Fracking, gegen das sich die Umweltminister heute ausgesprochen haben.

Die Erdgas Lobbyisten bedienen sich auch der Ukraine-Krise, um ihre Anträge auf Fracking durchzusetzen. Doch das ist ein Argument, das nicht zieht. Die in Norddeutschland zu fördernden Gasmengen sind so gering, dass sie ganz sicher keine Alternative zum Import russischen Gases darstellen. In Deutschland wird Fracking deshalb immer eine Randerscheinung bleiben. In den USA und Kanada hingegen hat es in den vergangenen fünf Jahren einen solchen Boom gegeben, dass das prognostizierte weltweite Aus für Öl und Gas noch 20 bis 30 Jahre nach hinten verlagert wurde.

Trotzdem ist das Manöver durchsichtig: Industrie und Politik wollen den Fuß in der Tür behalten, um die Erdgasförderung in Deutschland zu legitimieren. Und die Umweltminister haben heute zwar Reformen beschlossen; jetzt muss sich allerdings zeigen, ob die Umweltinteressen die Wirtschaftsinteressen schlagen können. Für die sehr umtriebigen Bürgerinitiativen in Norddeutschland bedeutet das: Die Fracking-Gefahr ist noch längst nicht gebannt, auch wenn es völlig unrealistisch ist, dass in den kommenden Jahren in Norddeutschland mit dem Schiefer-Fracking begonnen wird. “Fracking – nein, danke” – das heutige Motto der Umweltminister wird Norddeutschland auch noch die kommenden Jahre bewegen.

How not to beat your wife: Precaution and the Pesticides Directive

Posted by on 05/05/14
The more the pesticides industry denies safety accusations, the more guilty they look. The erosion of trust is built into the precautionary blacklist game - a game the industry will never win.

Will humanity take effective action against climate change?

Posted by on 14/04/14

In the fall of 2015 the international community is set to adopt a comprehensive action plan to combat climate change. Paris having been chosen as the meeting place the French government is showing more interest in climate issues and trying to mobilise the EU on a rapid agreement of its 2030 climate objectives.

The UN preparatory machinery keeps running full steam to obtain a successful outcome.

This goes above all for the scientific aspects.

In the last seven years, Humanity has accumulated a huge amount of scientific data on the climate change that has taken place during the 20th century and is likely to occur during the 21st century. Never have human beings known so much about the climate. It is therefore no longer possible for anyone to deny climate change taking place and being mostly man-made.

There is also a consensus on its main causes: C02 and methane emissions from burning fossil energies for heating, cooling, transport, industrial processes and massive deforestation are the principal villains.

If Humanity were able to contain these major causal factors within the next five decades it would still have a chance of mitigating climate change.

Theoretically this is possible.

Humanity can do without burning as much fossil energy as it does. This goes in particular for the wealthy West and China.

Wind, solar, biomass and waves can substitute fossil energy, provided storage facilities and long-distance grid interconnections are in place.

As long as they are still more expensive than coal and gas temporary subsidy regimes should offer incentives.

But why should the 2015 “big bang” in Paris be any different from the 20 preceding “Conferences of the Parties” and lay out a convincing path for Humanity to throw off the burden of climate change that will weigh so heavily on the shoulders of the coming generations?

The 195 countries that will attend the COP 21 remain deeply divided on the nature of the commitments and the burden sharing they will have to accept for a successful outcome. So far they are likely to agree only on the necessity to contain global warming within the critical margin of two centigrade; but that would be nothing new and rather meaningless without firm and verifiable commitments as to the actions to be taken.

But the international community is less than ever concerned about climate change. According to the last assessments the impact of climate change on the global economy is likely to be much lower than projected only six years ago by the Stern Report. And how many politicians care already about the impacts on biodiversity, natural catastrophes or even a steep increase in the numbers of “climate refugees”!

It is therefore not surprising to see the emphasis shifting from mitigation to adaptation. Humanity seems to prefer the costs for adaptation rather than invest in mitigation efforts, even if that will be risky because of the irreversible effects of climate change.

It is fully in line with this trend that:

  • big polluter countries like Japan, Australia, Canada or Russia are anything but keen combating climate change;
  • all major fossil energy producing countries refuse phasing out their massive oil and gas subsidies;
  • EU climate policy suffers from the global indifference. The EU rightly underlines that its efforts matter less and less as its share of global emissions is approaching 10 per cent. Contrary to the wishes of the UN Secretary General, it is not likely to play the role of a powerful locomotive in Paris, however regrettable this may be.

China and USA, the two emission giants, accounting for about half of global emissions, might be a glimpse of light in the gloomy picture.

But China will take another 20 years or so before its emissions might start falling; and the US objective of reducing its emissions by 17 per cent until 2017 compared to 2005 will not be a glorious achievement, considering its extremely high per capita emissions of 14 tons and the EU scheduled reductions and by at least 40 per cent until 2030 over 1990.

In conclusion, it looks presently unlikely that the COP 21 in Paris will turn out to be a thrilling success.

It would be a great progress if:

  • the 20 major emitter countries responsible for about 75 per cent of global emissions committed themselves to formulate 20-year strategies within a UN framework and to submit annual performance reports;
  • all rich countries, including the oil/gas exporters, offered the World Bank the financial means – say $ 100 billion per year – to help finance a big programmes for wind, hydro and solar energy;
  • the tropical forest countries were to curb illegal wood cutting and receive appropriate compensation for these efforts.

Eberhard Rhein, Brussels, 11/4/2014

Combating climate change will be a long difficult haul

Posted by on 07/04/14

While the international community is due to finally take serious action against climate change it is worthwhile having a look at Denmark, Sweden and, to a lesser degree, Finland and Norway that have succeeded to generate two thirds of their electricity from renewable sources, mostly from wind and water.

But despite intensive efforts and favourable conditions – zero population growth, large forest areas, a very big hydro power potential and ideal wind conditions – they are still miles away from a fossil-free energy supply which Denmark aspires by 2050.

Still, the international community might learn a few lessons from their experience:

  • build a strong political and popular support.

Without such a support technical efforts will go nowhere. This support is there in each of the countries.

  • set long term objectives, buffered by short-time targets on which to focus concrete action.

    Thus by 2020 Denmark aims to cover one third and until 2050 its entire energy needs from renewable sources.

Similarly the EU operates with 2020/30 targets within a 2050 horizon.

  • put in place a strong institutional framework: a climate and energy ministry and energy agency.

    Denmark has led the way.

  • introduce cost-effective support schemes for accelerating the shift from fossil to renewable energy.

    Denmark has tried a panoply of measures, strongly focused on wind power, its principal renewable source, investment grants to enterprises shifting their energy supply from fossil to renewable sources and recently also premiums for solar power.

    Unlike Germany which has wasted huge amounts of subsidies for photovoltaic installations, not ideal in a country lacking sun during much of the year, the Scandinavian countries have concentrated their efforts on wind energy of which they have plenty. Such a focus on the most effective source of renewable energy is crucial for obtaining cost-effectiveness.

  • offer subsidies only for a limited period (10 years) and adapt them to falling production costs.

    Here too Denmark is a better example than Germany that has offered premiums unchanged for 20 years.

  • invest from the start in energy storage and interconnections for periods without wind or sunshine.

    Here Germany has also failed for a long time.

  • begin with renewable electricity even if heating and transport are more important energy consumers.
  • do not forget pushing for more effective thermal insulation of the building stock, where the Nordic countries have also been outstanding.

  • do not renounce mandatory action, for example energy efficiency standards if you can monitor their implementation.

  • last not least, phase out all direct and indirect subsidies for fossil energy.

In conclusion, if Humanity is serious with reducing green house gas emissions every major energy consuming country must without delay put in place the institutional and legal bases for reducing its fossil energy consumption.

To be effective it must draw up an appropriate strategy containing a long term vision and short term operational measures.

It is up to the UN to invite its most appropriate institution to help countries in that exercise and make sure that those countries implementing effective climate strategies will benefit from the financial assistance that has been promised by the international community.

But even with the most devoted efforts the Nordic countries` experience shows that it will take decades before such policies will produce strong results. Homework should therefore start without any further delay.

 

Only a minor detail?

Posted by on 28/03/14

It seems to be only a little very unimportant detail from an overall perspective: Paper machinery imports in China break down. It is caused by declining demand for paper products and overcapacity in the industry. This is not a new story. Everywhere internet is pushing away paper. Less printed products, less demand in paper. But it is the second part of the story that is very interesting. It is about environmental measures. In fact, paper manufacturing requires large amounts of water and wood – natural resources the Peoples Republic of China has decreasing access. That’s the reason why critics ask whether the current pursued growth in paper production is for the good of the country and really useful. This sounds like a really important mental change. It started in Europe the same way. Twenty years later we are having renewable energies and car-sharing.

Big risk

Posted by on 27/03/14

What’s the biggest risk factor on earth – causing deaths and diseases for millions? Travel by plain or car? Alcohol and Cigarettes? Bad habits in food consumption? Wars? Sharks? No! It’s not about what’s coming initially in people’s minds. It’s the bad air, too many people are breathing. In 2012, seven million people died of air pollution exposure, according to new estimates by World Health Organization (WHO). One in eight global deaths is caused by the world’s largest health risk. CO2-emmission trading and prevention schemes like we are having in Europe are far above those problems. But the approach should be a role model for the world as Europe started itself not from a very high level. And it’s worth to spend time and financial efforts on it. It’s about nothing less than the world’s biggest risk.

Watch out for more: http://www.euractiv.com/sections/health-…

Turning food waste into resource?

Posted by on 25/03/14

Food waste is food loss occurring during the retail and final consumption stages due to the behaviour of retailers and consumers – that is, the throwing away of food.1 This definition describes well what “food waste” means in legal terms, but who knows what it means in numbers.  Did you know that almost 90 million tonnes of food waste is generated annually in the EU, which is 180kg/person/year, and about 126 million tonnes a year is expected by 2020 unless actions will be taken?2

 

 

The Europe 2020 Strategy and its flagship initiative “A Resource Efficient Europe” describes that resource efficiency should be improved in the food sector and different actions need to be identified in order to halve the disposal of edible food waste in the EU by 2020.3

The European Parliament designated 2014 as the ‘European year against food waste’. Various promotional materials have been developed by the EC to change the behaviour of the public and highlight that every single person has an important role in the reduction of food waste.

Business sector is also active in this field. Food waste is a difficult waste fraction to manage which represents high waste management costs; therefore, it requires high level expertise to transform it into renewable resources. During the past years, a wide range of projects, ideas and initiatives have been launched with the aim to manage and reduce food waste.

Novel ideas and new concepts are always appreciated in this market. A team of forward thinking experts from eight European countries – the consortium of the PlasCarb project – identified that mixed food waste could be a feedstock to manufacture products for different markets. PlasCarb, the 3-year long project co-funded under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), aims to transform food waste into a sustainable source of significant economic added value, namely graphitic carbon and renewable hydrogen. If you would like to know how the PlasCarb technology will work and what the achievements of the project will be, check out the brand-new project website www.plascarb.eu.

 

This is how we aim to contribute to achieving EU’s food waste objectives! Of course managing food waste is not enough we have to reduce food waste. Reducing food waste is a shared responsibility and every single people need to contribute to this activity.

And what can you do as a person? Plan your shopping and check what items you have at home already, use up your leftovers, make compost, etc.!

Why not? Solutions are in front of you; you just have to grab them! Let’s reduce food waste!

 

1 Definition of food waste – Wikipedia

2 EPRS Briefing: Tackling food waste (2014)

3 Roadmap to a resource-efficient Europe- COM (2011) 571 final

Rights, water and the EU

Posted by on 22/03/14

Today, March 22, 2014, is World Water Day. This worldwide event has been observed by all UN member states since 1993 when the United Nations first introduced it. The event aims on promoting social awareness on water issues such as access to clean and safe water and the promotion of sustainable aquatic habitats.

This week, the European Commission officially responded to the very first successful European Citizens Initiative, the Right2Water initiative. This ECI intends to promote EU legislation that guarantees the human right to the access to water supply and sanitation.

The Commission response was rather optimistic. Maroš Šefčovič, the commissioner for inter-institutional relations and administration, stated in the press release: “Europe’s citizens have spoken, and today the Commission gave a positive response. Water quality, infrastructure, sanitation and transparency will all benefit – for people in Europe and in developing countries – as a direct result of this first ever exercise in pan-European, citizen-driven democracy. I congratulate the organisers on their achievement.

The press release also detailed the Commission’s plans on committing itself on following the initiative’s aims. The actions set by the Commission include, among others, the launch of an EU-wide public consultation on the Drinking Water Directive to assess potential improvements, the exploration of the idea of benchmarking quality, the promotion of structured dialogue between stakeholders on transparency in the water sector and the invitation of member states to act within their own competences and encourage them to prioritize the guarantee of providing safe and clean water.

But unfortunately, the response was a bit of a disappointment to the initiators of the initiative. The initiative’s aim was to persuade the Commission to prioritize a proposal, yet the question on whether the Commission will propose legislation was left unanswered. Jan Willem Goudriaan, the vice president of www.right2water.eu, expressed his regret that the Commission lacked ambition in satisfying the initiative’s aims. As he stated in a press release: “The reaction of the European Commission lacks any real ambition to respond appropriately to the expectations of 1.9 million people. I regret that there is no proposal for legislation recognising the human right to water.

The current situation obviously exposes some problems in the order. A successful initiative must have a strong influence in policymaking, but since the Commission responded in an optimistic yet insufficient way, the future of the ECI campaign remains unclear; will it influence democratic development in the EU or not?

The launching of a citizens’ initiative is via a “citizens’ committee” that’s composed of at least seven EU citizens who reside in at least seven different member states. One million citizens’ signatures must then be collected to back an initiative. Therefore, the ECI is considered the voice of EU citizens. Its essential duty is to voice the people’s concerns and bring them before the European Commission. It aims in promoting a more democratic EU in persuading the EU’s executive body to propose legislation on matters where the EU is competent, as in agriculture, energy, public health, development cooperation and humanitarian aid.

These initiatives are meant to influence EU political decision-making in a big way for it to strengthen EU democracy. The Union must realize that the progress of the ECI implies that citizens are becoming more politically active and participatory in EU-level direct democracy, and they must respond with a genuine commitment to maintain the citizens’ wishes.

Courtesy of the European Citizens' Initiative (ECI)

 

 

The EU should invest more in urban mobility

Posted by on 21/03/14

Urban mobility is bound to become one the most pressing global issues in the coming decades. By 2050, three quarters of Humanity are expected to live in urban regions, with detrimental consequences for mobility, pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

Europe scores substantially better than most other regions on earth; but even in Europe mobility and air pollution have kept deteriorating in recent decades. The most recent smog alarm in several French cities and Brussels should have been an alarm signal for European governments neglecting the issue.

Within Europe mobility and air qualities vary widely between cities and regions, with Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Netherlands and, to a lesser extent, Germany faring much better than Italy, Greece or Portugal.

The time necessary to get to work exceeds more than 30 minutes in most European cities and tends to lengthen rather than shorten, as it should.

About one third of the people continue to use individual cars to get to work. No surprise that 40 per cent of all C02 emissions from transport are generated in urban areas and C02 emissions per person exceed one ton in most cities.

The costs of urban traffic (congestion, pollution, noise, health impact, damage to buildings) in Europe are estimated to amount to € 100 billion annually, one per cent of the EU GDP and almost the equivalent of the EU budget. That is far too much to ignore!

The EU must therefore step up its efforts to ease urban mobility and lower emissions.

That requires courageous measures. The number of European cities having done so and offering examples is impressive.

Urban mobility and pollution do not fall under EU competences. It is therefore impossible for the EU to intervene directly.

This may explain, at least partially the lack of progress during the last 20 years, notwithstanding the Commission’s efforts in producing white papers, green papers and action plans.

In early 2014, 40 per cent of European city dwellers complained of air pollution, congestion and transport costs. That is an unacceptably high percentage.

Copenhagen, Europe’s 2014 green Capital, deserves praise for having established a long-term strategy addressing mobility and pollution: it aims at half of its inhabitants using the bicycle to go to school or work next year, and by 2025 it wants to be C02-neutral!

All European cities should follow Copenhagen’s approach and elaborate their strategies for improving mobility and air quality.

The EU can support such efforts in two major ways:

  • by making available long-term financing. The EIB should make such financing a top priority until 2030.
  • by encouraging municipalities to engage in an intensive exchange of experience , whether through the existing “ Mayors` Covenant” or a new expert group for urban mobility, as recently suggested by the EU Commission.

The big investments necessary for the improvement of urban mobility and air quality will contribute to the creation of jobs in the next years.

Whatever the ways of tackling the issue, it would be a shame if Europe were unable to successfully address a vital issue for its citizens` well-being, starting with good health!

Urban mobility and clean air should become a political top priority for the next Commission and European Parliament.

Eberhard Rhein, Brussels, 17/3/2014

I Pollute

Posted by on 18/03/14
Imagine a religion that looks at the problems in the world and concludes that it is because others sin. “If only they could be more like me!” A faith without humility and mercy is hypocritical – a congregation of zealots. As environmentalists build their beliefs into their new temple, the eco-theologians need to remind their followers of the virtue of humility – that they are not without sin.

Will we have enough food in 2050?

Posted by on 16/03/14

A recent article (literature) mentions that by 2050, the per capita daily calorie consumption will increase 11% as a result of increased wealth. Also per capita food consumption of some food categories might increase dramatically:  14% for sugar, 15% for legumes, 33% for vegetable oil, and 26% for meat, % 19 for milk and dairy products. On the other hand no such increase is expected for cereals. National and international

researchers as well as investment strategists are surely starting to warn policy makers of these changes. The article also draws attention to the disorganized structure of the agricultural research institutions and recommends the collection of these institutions under one umbrella.

How were we able to feed the doubled world population from 1960 to 2010, despite no major changes incultivated agricultural land?  Above graphic explains the phenomena (Graphic): Improved crop varieties with agronomic innovations performed three to four folds in every corner of the world. This is a result of increased agricultural research and development investments of the public and the private sector.

Can we apply the same successful efforts to meet the 70%[1] increase in food production that will be needed in the 2050s? According to a report by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) report, we can. Research suggests that we can produce more than expected consumption if we sophisticated research and development studies in all agricultural ecologies and ensure the results are leveraged by farmers. There are a number of ways to expand the agricultural production facilities:

  1. 1. Increased productivity by investment in R&D. Breeding new crop varieties which are adaptable to every existing ecology and various conditions with heat, drought, biotic (disease-pests) and abiotic (salinity, heat, cold, drought etc.) resistance, improving effective use of nitrogen varieties;
  2. 2. Application of research results to every agronomic production option, such as no-till, precision agriculture and second crop application which would aim to ensure the efficient use of existing or possible resources  conducted for every production area;
  3. 3. Increased investment in irrigation techniques, including water conservation, the most effective way to use limited water resources to determine the systems, like drip and sprinkler irrigation.

A simulation study has been conducted using these techniques for the three basic crops (corn, rice and wheat) and some of the results are summarized below (table).

Technologies Corn(%) Rice (%) Wheat (%)
Nitrogen-efficient varieties 11 20 6
No-till 16 - 16
Heat-tolerant varieties 16 3 9
Precision agriculture 4 9 10

Simply using nitrogen-efficient varieties might increase rice yield 20%. Heat-tolerant varieties boost corn yield %16 adding other alternatives like new genotypes that are resistant to diseases and pests can help achieve the 70% increase needed.

A number of the mentioned technologies have already been implemented. For example Argentina gets second crop (soybean after wheat) in its cropland over million hectares by using the “no-till” method in conjunction with biotech varieties, Such applications are need heavy R&D in every soil. Their significance stands out especially due to climate changes. However the very first thing needed is public (and political) awareness of an effective agricultural system. Unfortunately not all countries unite their manpower and financial infrastructure together like the BRIC[2] countries. Brazil has already established its EMPRAPA (Brazilian Enterprise for Agricultural Research) for all future national research activities by bringing together their federal and state experiment stations, including universities; Brazil is now the second country after the USA in agricultural biotechnology. India’s recently established ICAR (The Indian Council of Agricultural Research) with 99 institutes, 69 Agricultural Universities and 636 experiment stations is one of the largest national agricultural research systems in the world (Literature). Here are too many other countries following suit!

Nazimi Acıkgoz


[1] consumer demand will be for meat  %80, for grain % 52

[2] Bric countries and biotechnology, http://blog.milliyet.com.tr/bric-ulkeler…

 

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